Gene Munster, an analyst for Piper Jaffray’s, who has been known for his radical, and sometimes illogical, Apple predictions has stated this morning that Apple won’t be unveiling any new technology until after the iPhone 5S launch which is rumored to take place in June. He also claims that Apple’s April event will be centric of “incremental upgrades” for the iPad and/or iTunes, so nothing big is scheduled to take place.
In a note to his clients, he broke down the following (via Fortune):
He now expects no major product announcements until June. Even if there is an April event, he says, it’s likely to focus on incremental upgrades to the iPad and/or iTunes, and is unlikely to move shares one way or the other.
He expects Apple’s revenues for this quarter to come in at $41.3 billion — at the low end of the company’s $41-$43 billion guidance and below the Street’s current consensus of $42.8 billion, as reported by Thomson Finance.
He’s looking for iPhone sales of 35.5 million and Mac sales of 3.8 million, considerably below the 37 million iPhones and 4.2 million Macs he says are implied by the Street’s revenue expectations.
In terms of gross margin, he believes the Street is factoring in a 39%-40% margin. He’s expecting 38%, right in the middle of the company’s 37.5% to 38.5% guidance.
Apple could also disappoint the Street with its June guidance. Thomson Finance has the consensus at $40.2 billion. Munster thinks it will be closer to $36 to $38 billion.
Finally, in terms of cash management, he expects only a modest dividend increase — from the current $10.60 a year to about $14 — and no increase in Apple’s stock buyback program.
He is claiming that Apple will have to go in somewhat of a slump, stock-wise, in order to bring themselves up, so his note is semi-negative to those who invest in Apple (AAPL). However, due to his track record with prior predictions, one can immediately label this unlikely, yet we’re interested to see how this pans out.
What are your thoughts on this? Do you think Munster’s predictions could even be remotely correct? Let us know in the comments below.
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